"That this could happen is not obvious at all. WT 2020 contends that contact that seems trivial to an ETI could contain valuable technical information that could be useful to a monopolizing nation. The authors also criticize the sample contact scenario in WT 2020. The scientific community runs on openness, not informational protectionism. Our most powerful observatories have multiple nations and institutions as partners, so monopolization seems doubtful. For example, if it's a western democracy that detects a signal, could it monopolize it? Unlikely, according to the authors, since western science is well-integrated internationally. The authors criticize other aspects of the WT 2020 realpolitik scenario, too. The more realistic threat is that a nation thinks it could monopolize communications. The new paper's authors agree with that much but show that "… it is highly unlikely that a nation could successfully monopolize communication with ETI." If a realpolitik response does come into play, it could be the most relevant response. They say there are flaws in the WT 2020 analysis and that "… sufficient reason is not given to justify treating this potential scenario as action-guiding over other candidate geopolitical responses." "While we do not dispute that a realpolitik response is possible, we uncover concerns with W&T's presentation of the realpolitik paradigm," the authors write. "The existence of hardened facilities and locked-down information flows could itself be interpreted by outsiders as evidence that some world-altering activity was occurring within that community or facility…" From "Geopolitical Implications of a Successful SETI Program," Wright et. They also disagree that it's likely any nation could somehow monopolize communications with an ETI. The WT 2020 authors also suggest that observational facilities like radio telescopes adopt security measures similar to those of nuclear power plants.īut the new paper, which is a rebuttal to the WT 2020 paper and their realpolitik concerns, doesn't see these security actions as helpful. They suggest that scientists working in SETI form supportive relationships with local law enforcement, strengthen the perimeters and security of their institutions, and strengthen personnel security for scientists and their families. In WT 2020, the authors say that realpolitik considerations should be important in planning for successful passive SETI. It could lead to conflict or other undesirable consequences. This is the realpolitik lens that the authors are examining. Imagine China, Russia, or the USA coveting that technological advantage. If a government monopolizes communications with the ETI, it could gain a technological edge. "This possibility needs to be considered when analyzing the potential risks and benefits of contact with ETI."įor Wisian and Traphagan, the danger lies in what we might do to ourselves.Īny ETI would likely have an enormous technological advantage over us, and as long as the ETI wasn't malicious, that advantage presents an opportunity to nations. "The history of international relations viewed through the lens of the realpolitik tradition of realist political thought suggests, however, that there is a measurable risk of conflict over the perceived benefit of monopoly access to ETI communication channels," the authors write in WT 2020. What if the ETI is technologically advanced and menacing? What if they're like conquistadors or something? Stephen Hawking expressed this fear well in 2010 when he said, "Such advanced aliens would perhaps become nomads, looking to conquer and colonize whatever planets they could reach". In WT 2020, the two authors pointed out that much of the thinking around ETIs is centered on the risks of Searching for Extraterrestrial Intelligence (SETI) and Messaging an Extraterrestrial Intelligence (METI). Wisian is from the Center for Space Research at the University of Texas, and Traphagan is from the Department of Religious Studies and Program in Human Dimensions of Organizations, also at the University of Texas. The authors are Kenneth Wisian and John Traphagan. That paper was also published in the journal Space Policy, bringing a new emphasis to the discussion around potential contact with an ETI. This paper is a response to a previous article published in 2020 called ' The Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence: A Realpolitik Consideration'.
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